Grand Theft Auto VI is set to launch on Thursday, November 19, and economists are projecting that the game's release could drain roughly $1 billion from the United States economy as workers take time off or lose focus at their jobs.

José García Montalvo, an economics professor at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, estimates that approximately 1.5 million Americans will skip work when the game arrives, creating a productivity dip of around 2 percent. According to his analysis published by International Business Times, the figure is based on average yearly output of about $70,000 per U.S. worker. Men aged 18 to 30 are expected to make up most of the missing workers, with the technology sector likely to take the hardest hit.

Human resources platform BambooHR has already flagged a measurable surge in vacation requests for November 19. Using paid time off data from active employees across more than 30,000 companies in the U.S., BambooHR found that PTO requests for the third Thursday of November are running 9 to 17 percent above historical averages from recent years. The company told GameSpot that the data is consistent "at every checkpoint we can measure," though it acknowledged it cannot definitively prove Grand Theft Auto VI is the sole reason for the increase.

The economic impact carries an international dimension. While U.S. employers absorb the productivity loss, much of the revenue flows to Rockstar North, the lead studio behind the game, which is based in Edinburgh, Scotland. Take-Two Interactive chief executive Strauss Zelnick told shareholders the company expects more than $1 billion in operating cash flow this fiscal year, with Grand Theft Auto VI as the main driver. In effect, the money does not disappear but moves from American workplaces to the game's publisher and studio.

Market research firm Newzoo estimates Grand Theft Auto VI could sell at least 37 million copies in its opening week, with global first-week retail bookings running as high as $4.5 billion. The franchise has sold nearly 475 million copies to date, and the upcoming release has already banked more than 5.2 million pre-orders.

Grand Theft Auto VI launches on November 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and S, one week before Thanksgiving. A playthrough of the game can take roughly 80 hours to complete.

Theresa Lucas